By Cal Lutheran NewsOver its 17-year history, California Lutheran University’s Center for Economic Research and Forecasting (CERF) has developed a reputation for objective, clear-eyed forecasts that reflect what economic theory and state-of-the-art forecasting tools reveal. These forecasts have received national recognition in the form of prestigious accuracy awards. CERF also has a mission of service to the local community as a solutions-oriented organization, analyzing policy and working with diverse stakeholders to address major economic challenges.
All of this will be on display on Feb. 24 when CERF hosts the 2026 Ventura County Economic Forecast Event at the Scherr Forum Theatre in Thousand Oaks. More than 300 individuals representing business, nonprofit and government sectors will gather for what has become the premier business networking event in Ventura County.
Leveraging CERF’s deep roots and unmatched expertise in the regional economy, executive director Matthew Fienup will present the 2026 Ventura County Economic Forecast and provide in-depth analysis of the county’s economic and demographic performance.
The theme for this year’s event is “Broken Inheritance: How Today’s Decisions Handicap the Next Generation.” From serial government deficits to stringent growth controls, decisions made years ago have shaped the current state of the economy at the national and local levels. And decisions made today will have major consequences for future generations.
This year’s featured speaker is Veronique de Rugy, PhD, chair of Political Economy at George Mason University and a nationally syndicated columnist. De Rugy will address the economic and social costs of government debt, underscoring the critical importance of putting the country on a sound fiscal path.
This is CERF’s 16th annual Ventura County event and the first since CERF received its most prestigious national forecasting award to date. Following the 2025 forecast event, CERF learned it was the recipient of a Crystal Ball Award for the Fannie Mae (formerly Case-Hiller) Home Price Expectations Survey. CERF’s two-year-ahead forecast of 2024 home prices was the single most accurate among more than 100 forecasters, topping Moody’s Analytics, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve and Wharton. The award was CERF’s fourth Fannie Mae Crystal Ball Award in six years.
“Our fourth Crystal Ball award demonstrates CERF’s outstanding track record of accuracy,” Dan Hamilton, CERF director of economics, said. “We are excited to celebrate this prestigious award with community members who have been attending CERF’s forecast event for years.”
In addition to participating in the Fannie Mae survey, CERF is a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey and the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) Economic Outlook Survey. CERF forecasts and analyses have been the subject of more than a thousand articles across print, electronic and broadcast media, including the Associated Press, Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Economist, Forbes, CNN Money and Bloomberg.
CERF not only engages in thoughtful analysis but actively seeks to shape policy at the local, state and national levels. CERF was integral to the design and implementation of the first groundwater markets to be implemented in California under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act.
During the pandemic, CERF led an ambitious COVID-19 antibody study, which informed Ventura County’s decision to be the first in California to reopen schools for in-person learning. Since 2018, CERF has devoted its expertise in economic measurement to the Latino GDP Project, an ambitious research initiative that documents the large and rapidly growing economic contribution of U.S. Latinos.
“Amid the wide range of projects that we work on throughout the year, the Ventura County forecast event is a special one for the CERF team,” Fienup said. “Ventura County is our home. All year long, we look forward to gathering with our neighbors and discussing the economic outlook for this special community.”
CERF was founded in 2009 by economists Bill Watkins and Dan Hamilton, who ran UC Santa Barbara’s Economic Forecast Project until moving to California Lutheran University. Matthew Fienup joined the team in 2014.
