By Cal Lutheran NewsIn recognition of their outstanding accuracy in forecasting United States’ home prices, California Lutheran University economists Matthew Fienup, Ph.D., and Dan Hamilton, Ph.D., received the 2024 Crystal Ball Award for the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (formerly known as the Zillow and Case-Shiller Home Price Expectations Surveys). This is the fourth time in six years that Fienup and Hamilton, both of Cal Lutheran’s Center for Economic Research and Forecasting (CERF), have received the prestigious national award. They previously were honored with three consecutive awards, from 2019 to 2021.
CERF has participated in the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations survey since it was launched in 2010 by Yale professor and Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller.
“Our goal is to provide objective, clear-eyed forecasts that reflect what economic theory and state-of-the-art forecasting tools reveal,” said Fienup, CERF executive director. “We see our role as calling ‘balls and strikes,’ rather than advocating for a preferred outcome.”
CERF’s two-year-ahead forecast of 2024 home prices was the single most accurate among more than 100 forecasters in the survey. CERF’s three-year-ahead forecast was the third most accurate, and their one-year-ahead forecast was fifth. Other top finishers include Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, Denis Egin of the International Monetary Fund, Susan Wachter of the Wharton School and Carlos Garriga of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
“The survey leverages a large community of professional forecasters to provide forward guidance on home prices, which in turn, impact household spending, household and investor psychology and financial markets,” said Hamilton.
Pulsenomics, an independent research and index product development firm, quarterly surveys a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists and housing market analysts regarding their five-year expectations for future home prices in the United States to create the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey.
“Our fourth Crystal Ball award demonstrates CERF’s outstanding track record of accuracy,” said Fienup. “We are especially proud of this award given the history of the survey and the distinguished list of survey contributors.”
For more information:
2024 Crystal Ball Award Winners
Home Price Expectations Survey Top-10 Rankings
About the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting (CERF): CERF is a nationally recognized economic forecasting house. CERF economists Matthew Fienup and Dan Hamilton are members of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Outlook and Economic Policy Surveys and the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey. CERF is the recipient of 2024, 2021, 2020 and 2019 Crystal Ball Award for the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey. CERF’s two-year ahead U.S. home price forecast was the single most accurate among more than 100 professional forecasts. CERF seeks to be a solutions-oriented organization, providing world-class economic forecast publications, analyzing the effects of economic policies and working with diverse stakeholders to address the major economic challenges of the day.
About California Lutheran University: Founded in 1959 and federally recognized as a Hispanic-Serving Institution since 2016, California Lutheran University is home to over 2,200 undergraduate and 1,000 graduate students. Our students come from 58 countries and represent many faiths and spiritualities. Our dedicated, accomplished faculty teach in small classes, guiding our students as they grow into open-minded leaders who are strong in character and judgment, confident in identity and vocation, and committed to service and justice. Everyone at Cal Lutheran is committed to helping students pursue their passions, discover their purpose and transform their communities. Learn more at CalLutheran.edu.
Media Contacts
Matthew Fienup
Executive Director, Center for Economic Research and Forecasting
805-493-3668
Tom Hoener
Associate Vice President for Enrollment Management
California Lutheran University
thoener@CalLutheran.edu
Sarene Wallace
PR Consultant
805-816-5616
sarenewallace@CalLutheran.edu
